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                                                                                                                                                                          澳洲博士赌博:瑞达期货:饲料成本底部支撑,建议鸡蛋空单持有

                                                                                                                                                                          (原标题:瑞达期货:饲料成本底部支撑,建议鸡蛋空单持有)

                                                                                                                                                                          盘面情况:2月12日,鸡蛋1905合约日内缩量增仓收阳,最高报3372元/500千克,最低报3346元/500千克,收盘3357元/500千克,较上一交易日+0.84%;成交量94984手,-76394手;持仓量180404手,+10334手;JD5-9月价差-600元/500千克,-21元/500千克。

                                                                                                                                                                          现货面:根据鸡病专业网消息,周二全国行情在北京报价110的作用下全面崩溃。主销区北京广东回落上海平稳。今日产区中部市场受北京影响整体回落,京津唐周边全部低开,东北市场纸箱本来昨天已经基本到位结果今天受北京影响观望情绪继续加重,散框市场需求有限同样受北京影响回落为主,全国目前积压严重而且销量尚未恢复正常,今日北京价格超出年前预期,短期难有明显利好但目前价格在落空间有限。

                                                                                                                                                                          仓单:周二鸡蛋仓单量为20张,当日增减量+20张。根据大商所鸡蛋交割数据,周四交割量17手、交割金额721190元,交割价格较1月28日涨幅达50.65%。

                                                                                                                                                                          主力持仓:鸡蛋05合约主力资金维持净空持仓,随着期价窄幅震荡,而净空单量小幅增加,暗示主力资金看空情绪延续。

                                                                                                                                                                          总结:据芝华数据最新公布的蛋鸡存栏统计显示,2018年12月份在产蛋鸡存栏量10.46亿羽,环比减少1.74%,同比减少6.98%。育雏鸡补栏量6788万羽,环比增加1.23%,同比减少30.82%。受到非洲猪瘟影响,生猪跨省调运受限,主产区和主销区出现猪价两极分化现象,部分禽蛋主产区猪肉价格跌至5元区(单位:元/斤),对蛋价走高形成一定的压制;春节备货行情结束后,猪价低迷或将导致蛋价继续承压。短期饲料豆粕玉米主力合约表现强势预计带来一定底部支撑,鸡蛋1905合约建议3375元/500千克附近建仓的空单持有,止损3400元/500千克,目标3325元/500千克。

                                                                                                                                                                          瑞达期货农产品小组

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