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                                                                                                                                                                          炸金花扑克游戏:龙超理金:强势破位多头勿追,黄金谨防空头回落

                                                                                                                                                                              上个交易日,现货黄金在震荡徘徊多日后,一举攻破1300美元大关,最高触及1301美元一线,最终收盘时有所回落于1299美元一线,日线录得一根大阳柱。纵观其他商品,美股血流成河,道指暴跌700点,跌近2.7%;受贸易关系影响,投资者逃离股市美元等风险资产而青睐黄金等避险资产,因此黄金大涨。

                                                                                                                                                                            今日亚盘时段,美元指数勉强守在97整数关口下方,避险买盘给汇价提供了一些支撑,但国际贸易局势令美联储降息预期也显著降温,市场下调对美国经济数据的预期,美元下行风险仍存;黄金开盘冲高于1303美元一线后开始回落,目前于1298美元震荡,笔者龙超认为如果没有利好刺激,或出现反向消息,那么避险买盘带来的上涨行情的弊端也就会很快显现,即一旦消息被消化,或出现利空消息,那么将会大幅回吐此前避险带来的回升。

                                                                                                                                                                            不过也不必过分担忧黄金的前景,因为本周5月18日美国可能会对欧洲汽车和零部件征收关税,这可能会加剧市场的担忧情绪,推动黄金的进一步走高。此外,市场对于美联储降息的概率升至了80%附近,同时美债收益率曲线再次出现倒挂,这可能会使得美元继续走低并提振金价。

                                                                                                                                                                            因此金价现在可以说是多空各占其位,不相上下,那么短线操作就暂时按照技术面来看。首先日线上,金价在低位震荡多日后发力上破,最高触及1303美元一线,附图MACD和KDJ金叉运行,金价初步顶破了下行趋势线阻力,也冲破了MA60日均线与布林带上轨粘合处阻力1296美元,在再次回落至此点位下方以前,金价偏向于多头发展。上方第一阻力位于四月高点1310一线,其次便是1320整数关口和3月份高点1324.52附近。

                                                                                                                                                                            不过附图KDJ也非常接近超买区域,并且如前文所说,一旦消息被消化,那么空头便会卷土重来,若金价回落至1296美元下方,则削弱短线看涨信号,进一步支撑分别在上周高点1291.50和布林线中轨1284.34附近,若进一步回落至布林线中轨下方,则增加短线看空信号。

                                                                                                                                                                            综上今日黄金操作不宜高位追多,日内首要关注1300美元的得失,目前情况基本处于1300下方震荡,下一步就是看1295-96一线能否站稳,若是站稳则可以在此点位进多;若是跌破,则会试探顶底转换支撑1291一线。

                                                                                                                                                                            现货黄金做单点位:

                                                                                                                                                                            1,反弹1300-1302一线进空,止损1304,目标1296,减仓看破位至1291;